<ADV> 2024 Market Outlook Reports
Market Updates
The property market was rocked by a shock therapy in the form of a 60% ABSD tax on the purchase of residential property by foreigners and arrests of those suspected of money laundering this year. The estimated number of purchases in the CCR by foreigners dropped from a high of 59 in March 2023 to 10 in Nov 2023.
Nevertheless, the property market performed well despite these externalities and uncertain economic conditions. Developers launched an estimated 26 private residential projects and 1 EC project in 2023, much higher than the 15 private residential projects and 3 EC projects in 2022.
Developer sales could end the year between 6,000 and 6,500 units. Property prices have increased by 3.9% in the first nine months of 2023 and may grow more than 5% in 2023.
There may be up to 12 launches in 1Q 2024. With a rosier economic outlook projected next year, developers are estimated to sell between 7,000 and 8,000 units. Furthermore, prices in the property market are also estimated to grow between 3% and 5%.
The changes in classification of HDB towns and BTO flats announced in Aug 2023, plus important changes to public housing policies such as doubling in grants given to buyers of resale flats and introduction of HDB Flat Eligibility (HFE) letter impacted the HDB resale market volume and prices in 2023.
We estimate the volume of resale flat transactions to be 26,500 in 2023, 5% lower than 2022’s 27,896 flats. HDB resale prices are moving towards a phase of stability and is estimated to increase by 5% in 2023, which is half of 2022’s price gains of 10.4%.
For 2024, HDB resale flat transactions are estimated to be between 25,000 to 27,000 while resale flat prices are likely to stabilise in the range of 3% to 5%.
There was lesser tenant demand for private residential homes in 2023 due to slower growth in EP holders and the steep increase of almost 30% in rents in 2022. Some EP holders who have the luxury of working anywhere have moved to places such as Johor Bahru, Batam or even Bali.
The number of non-landed rental contracts in 2023 is estimated to be 77,000, 9.1% lower than 2022 while the estimated number of landed rental contracts in 2023 is 4,500, 19.1% lower than 2022.
Competition to retain and attract tenants heated up in 2H 2023 and many landlords held their rents steady to retain tenants.
Nevertheless, the estimated new supply of homes next year is almost half of 2023. The market may also be supported by foreigners who are renting while they apply for their permanent residency before buying.
Developer sales figures for the month of November.
970 units were launched for sale in November, the highest since July 2023. There were 3 major non-landed project launches, Hillock Green, J’den and Watten House.
784 units were sold in November 2023, 286.2% higher than in October 2023. The 3 project launches made up more than 70% of total sales. 539 units were sold in the OCR while 151 units were sold in the CCR.
In the first 11 months of 2023, an estimated 6,319 units were sold, and December's anticipated sales of 100 to 150 units may bring the total for the year to 6,400 to 6,500 units. The strong performance and price points achieved in the 3 recent launches may potentially see price growth exceed 1% in 4Q 2023 and more than 5% in 2023, giving developers the confidence to launch projects in 2024. There may be another 12 new launches in 1Q 2024, offering 3,225 units, with 66% in the OCR, 21% in the CCR, and 13% in the RCR. Prices are also expected to grow between 3% and 5%.
Are you looking for your new home or investment property in 2024? Speak to our Huttons Associate and understand your opportunities today!
Other News
Higher supply in softening market to keep private home prices in check in 2024 > Read more
GCB deals and prices expected to rise in 2024 on pent-up demand, motivated sellers > Read more
Rental occupancy cap raised to 8 unrelated people for HDB, private properties > Read more
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It has been an awesome 2023 here at Huttons! We are so immensely grateful for the milestones and memorable events we've experienced together. As we step into the excitement of 2024, let's set our sights on even greater heights! Here's to continued success and more unforgettable moments! 🌟
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